CDMA Is Not Dead Yet, says ABI Research

Although the overall dynamics of CDMA markets are overshadowed by the hype around UMTS/HSPA and the migration to LTE, CDMA operators continue to upgrade their networks to provide capacity for higher numbers of bandwidth-intensive data services, as well as escalating traffic load.

“Worldwide EVDO Rev A subscriber numbers ramped up more than eightfold between Q2 2007 and Q2 2008,” says ABI Research analyst Khor Hwai Lin. “The US and South Korean markets shows the highest growth rate for EVDO Rev A. The increased support for LTE from incumbent CDMA operators does not imply the imminent death of EVDO Rev A and B, because LTE is addressing different market needs compared to 3G.”
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2.1 billion mobile broadband customers by 2015, says Analysys Mason

Wireless broadband services will create significant opportunities for revenue growth, and cellular technologies will take the largest share, according to a report from Analysys Mason.

Globally, 2.1 billion wireless broadband customers will generate USD784 billion in service revenue by 2015. This revenue increase of about 2400% will be underpinned by continued developments in wireless technologies, improvements in devices and more flexible pricing options.
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Latin American on Mobility: Productivity + Personal Balance

With a 52% service revenue share in the telecommunications market, far exceeding that of fixed telephony (35%), mobile telephony services, including voice and data, are the industry’s top performer in Latin America, and show the regional users’ need to be continually connected. These conclusions were addressed by IDC Latin America Telecom Director Romina Adduci during the conference hosted by Nokia in Buenos Aires.

This mobile services growth is being mainly supported by access to personal and professional communication resources, ranging from email solutions, messaging and Internet navigation to more complex, business-related applications, including CRM, ERP, Workforce Automation, etc., which are supported by the corporate intranet in the mobile environment.
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China’s Mobile TV Compound Growth Forecasted to Reach 225.5% During 2008-2012

CCID Consulting recently released its article on compound growth rate of the output in China’s broadcasting mobile TV will reach 225.5% during the period of 2008-2012.

With the drive of export and domestic demands, China’s mobile phone output continues to grow in 2007, reaches 554 million sets, with a growth rate of 25.4%. The volume of export is 322 million sets, which accounts for 58.2%. Currently, China’s global mobile phone manufacturing base is quite steady. Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson have transferred their capacities to China; because of this factor, the export volume of China’s mobile phone increases 26.2%. Meanwhile, China’s domestic mobile phone enterprises’ capacity increases are evident, especially ZTE, Huawei and K-Touch.
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Wi-Fi Hotspots Stay Hot in 2008

Wi-Fi hotspots are continuing their torrid growth in 2008. According to ABI Research’s WI-Fi Hotspots Forecasts, by the end of this year global hotspots will grow by 40% over 2007. The greatest growth and the largest number of hotspots continue to be found in Europe. While the UK has long led in European Wi-Fi hotspots, there is also marked growth in France, Germany, and Russia.

Most remarkable about the hotspot market, says vice president and research director Stan Schatt, are the dynamics of a fast-changing business model.

“Starbucks’ decision to go to a virtually free Wi-Fi hotspot model is having a profound impact. Hotspot owners are beginning to see Wi-Fi as a cost of doing business and an operational expense, rather than as a profit center.” Schatt expects major retailers to move towards a free service model in phases.

“The first phase is likely to be a free or almost free service for good customers, those who have signed up for loyalty cards.”
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Falling WiMAX Chipset Prices Spell Good News for Adoption of Smaller Mobile Devices

The WiMAX chipset market is advancing quickly. There are solid 2-chip designs consisting of a single-chip baseband IC and a single-chip RF IC that are bringing power consumption down. Beceem, GCT Semiconductor, and Sequans have single-chip designs that include both the baseband and RF. Most importantly, WiMAX chipset ASPs are dropping rapidly.

“Even as the mobile WiMAX chipset market has barely gotten its feet wet, chipset ASPs are declining rapidly due to heavy competition and greater integration in designs,” says ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis. “Prices for the baseband and RF components of the chipset have come down from the $35 range a few years ago to below $25, and will drop below $10 in 2011. These falling WiMAX chipset prices are critical for inclusion of the technology in smaller mobile devices.”
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207 HSDPA networks in 89 countries, says GSA

More than 200 HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access) systems worldwide have launched commercial mobile broadband services, according to the latest research published today by GSA, the Global mobile Suppliers Association.

The GSA survey: “HSPA Operator Commitments” confirms 207 HSDPA networks have launched in 89 countries. This compares with 126 commercial HSDPA networks in 63 countries reported by GSA 12 months previously.
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Mobile Network Energy OPEX to Rise Dramatically to $22 Billion in 2013

Over the next few years the growing cost of bulk diesel fuel, coupled with wholesale electricity price increases, are likely to offset significant gains in cellular base station power efficiency. This will result in a collective network OPEX of $22 billion in 2013, according to a new study from ABI Research. Starting in 2012, however, the benefits of power consumption and efficiency advancements should start to rein in the spiraling operating expenditures.

Infrastructure vendors are focusing intently on reducing power consumption in their products through hardware integration, the use of remote radio heads, and software-based solutions that provide dynamic network dimensioning. These measures seem likely to reduce the average base station power consumption level by 43% between 2007 and 2013, a development that is eagerly awaited by the carrier community.
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WiMAX Services Revenues in Asia Pacific to Surge to US$5.5 Billion by 2012, Says Springboard Research

WiMAX is expected to gather strong momentum in the Asia Pacific region with WiMAX services revenues estimated to grow from US$58 million in 2007 to US$5.46 billion by 2012, according to the latest report by Springboard Research, a leading innovator in the IT market research industry. This translates to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 148% for the period.

The report, titled “Laying the Foundation: WiMAX in Asia/Pacific 2008”, further estimated the number of WiMAX subscribers to grow from 230,000 in 2007 to 33.9 million by 2012. Mobile WiMAX services are estimated to garner a significant majority of revenues and subscribers compared to fixed WiMAX services during the forecast period.
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Study Indicates Strong Consumer Demand for a Better Mobile Web

dotMobi and AKQA Mobile announced the results of an extensive consumer study of mobile Internet usage and attitudes. Conducted by the AKQA’s Research & Insights department in conjunction with dotMobi, the survey reveals key insights into the importance of a better mobile Web for consumers in the U.S. and U.K.

The survey findings indicated a strong consumer desire for practical mobile content on phones. Rather than basic entertainment and ringtones, consumers stated that their most-wanted mobile activities included phone-optimized banking and travel planning.
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Cellular Machine-to-Machine Communication Module Shipments to Increase Fourfold by 2013

Markets for cellular machine-to-machine (M2M) communication modules – the radio units providing wireless connectivity to a range of devices that communicate without human intervention – are expected to show strong growth in the coming years. According to new market data from ABI Research, shipments will total nearly 80 million modules in 2013.

“The latest cellular M2M module market data collated by ABI Research shows strong growth trends that are closely in line with our earlier forecasts,” says senior analyst Sam Lucero. “We see four applications that will be particularly fertile for M2M and should provide significant opportunities for vendors.”
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Mobile backhaul equipment market set to skyrocket due to exploding mobile data/video use

Mobile operators and backhaul transport providers spent $3.7 billion worldwide on mobile backhaul equipment in 2007, and are expected to increase their spending in the high double-digit percents from 2009 to at least 2011, according to Infonetics Research’s latest Mobile Backhaul Equipment, Installed Base, and Services report.

“All market indicators support continued growth of the mobile backhaul market. Manufacturers and service providers have had residential broadband and corporate services as the main thrust of their businesses for a long time, and now mobile backhaul makes up a third area that nearly all of them are focusing on. We expect to see the Ethernet mobile backhaul revolution really kick off in 2009,” said Michael Howard, principal analyst of Infonetics Research and lead analyst on the report.
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3G Spectrum Refarming Needed to Manage the Costs of Customer Expectations, says ABI Research

In recent years WCDMA subscriptions have grown apace: from 18 million at the end of 2004 to 170 million at the end of 2007. ABI Research forecasts that figure to rise to 740 million by the end of 2013.

“WCDMA is on its way towards proven success,” says Jake Saunders, ABI Research vice president, “but there are still challenges and hurdles to overcome. In particular, operators find that expanding WCDMA coverage in the 2100 MHz band into low-density urban and rural areas is very costly in the current competitive environment.”
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Strategy Analytics: ARM Will Beat Intel in $17 Billion Mobile Internet Device Market

Sales of Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) will exceed $17 Billion annually by 2014, but Intel-based products will take a minority share, according to “Mobile Internet Devices: Heavyweights Do Battle For $17 Billion Prize,” just released by the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices service. MIDs represent the latest attempt by computing, mobile and consumer electronics companies to create a market for handheld gadgets that support the complete range of Internet applications familiar to PC users. This report predicts that global sales in 2008 will reach 1 million units, and will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 102% to reach 69 million units by 2014.

“Intel’s Moorestown system-on-a-chip will be critical to the company’s MID strategy,” says Peter King, Director, Connected Home Devices. “But until this arrives in 2009 or 2010, ARM-based vendors will use this window of opportunity to establish market leadership positions.” The report concludes that the proven advantages of the ARM ecosystem in mobile devices will eventually outweigh those of the Intel platform and that ARM devices will comprise the majority of MID sales thru 2014.
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Mobile WiMAX to Level the Asia-Pacific Playing Field

While most Asia-Pacific countries are still processing spectrum bidding, manufacturers and application vendors are aggressively entering mobile WiMAX markets. As the market for mobile WiMAX expands, manufacturers are targeting new customer segments, and there will be a correspondingly huge opportunity in APAC regions.

“Because mobile WiMAX is aimed at untapped markets, almost all vendors including start-ups could be on equal footing with the larger, more established players,” says ABI Research senior analyst Andy Bae. “They will find significant opportunities in APAC.”
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