Big Growth in Data Traffic Will Spur Changes to Wireless Networks, says Heavy Reading

The exponential growth of data traffic carried by wireless networks is likely to force mobile service providers to accelerate their efforts to upgrade their networks to a flat, all-IP architecture, according to a major new report titled, Flat IP Architectures in Mobile Networks: From 3G to LTE, published by Heavy Reading, the market research division of TechWeb’s Light Reading.

Flat IP Architectures in Mobile Networks: From 3G to LTE examines network architecture evolution in response to rapidly growing 3G data traffic and the planned introduction of Long Term Evolution (LTE) and System Architecture Evolution (SAE) technology over the next two to four years. The report focuses on the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) technology track and specifically on the network elements that make up flat radio access networks (RANs) and the next-generation mobile packet core.

The 61-page report analyzes data from network operators and technology suppliers to determine how continued growth of data traffic volumes will affect mobile network performance. The report then delivers a detailed analysis of the technology options available to enable network operators to make the transition to flat IP networks. The report covers the full range of issues facing mobile network operators, including:

— Economic drivers for migrating to all-IP networks
— Mobile broadband service pricing trends
— The need to prepare for 4G technologies
— The effect of non-3GPP technologies (including UMA/GAN and femtocells) on carrier networks
— Direct Tunnel architecture strategies
— LTE/SAE architecture and Evolved Packet Core
— Mobile packet core issues and deployments, including deep packet inspection

Flat IP Architectures in Mobile Networks: From 3G to LTE also delivers a competitive analysis of product and migration strategies of 14 of the world’s leading mobile IP technology suppliers.

“The steep rise in data traffic volumes being carried by wireless networks is unmistakable,” says Gabriel Brown, Senior Analyst with Heavy Reading and author of the report. “In 2007, some large operators in Europe were carrying 2,000 GB of data traffic per day — an eightfold increase over traffic volumes compared with 2006. Mobile operators have to manage rapid traffic growth across a network infrastructure that simultaneously provides lower cost per bit and greater flexibility in the pricing structures of end-user services.”

A major key to achieving that goal is to adopt flat, all-IP network architectures to replace the hierarchical architectures that characterize legacy wireless networks, Brown says. “IP affects all segments of the mobile network architecture, including the radio access network, voice core, packet core, integration of non-3GPP/3GPP2 access, and the transmission network,” he adds.

Other key findings of Flat IP Architectures in Mobile Networks: From 3G to LTE include the following:

Lower prices and higher data rates are the main reasons for the huge recent growth in mobile data traffic. Usage is dominated by laptop modems, while “small-screen” services on handhelds is not yet generating significant traffic volume.

Mobile data revenues grew more than 40 percent in 2007 and revenue growth could be higher this year, as more users take advantage of cheaper services. There now appears to be evidence of positive elasticity for mobile data, but growth in the market to date is driven by the early-adopter community.

A 3G network capacity crunch isn’t likely before the end of 2009, which means operators still have time to hone their transition strategies — but the clock is ticking. Operators will use a mixture of software upgrades and deployment of additional carriers to enhance 3G cell site capacity for the time being. But within two years, operators of 3G networks will have to begin to migrate to Evolved HSPA, offering peak data rates of 28 Mbit/s, and then 42 Mbit/s per sector.

Flat IP Architectures in Mobile Networks: From 3G to LTE is essential reading for a wide range of industry participants, including the following:

— Mobile technology suppliers: How will soaring mobile data traffic
volumes affect demand for infrastructure products in coming months?
Which regions are going to see the most activity, and which network
operators will be leading the way? Which technology choices are
emerging as the front-runners in the move to flat IP architectures? Are
your products and marketing messages in line with customer plans and
expectations? Or are there significant gaps in your product line
coverage that need to be addressed to meet future demand for mobile
broadband data networking solutions?
— Mobile network operators: How do your plans for mobile broadband data
network expansion compare with anticipated increases in traffic
volumes? How does your IP migration strategy compare with the
strategies of your competitors? Does your migration path deliver the
best cost-performance option, or are there other alternatives that will
deliver greater efficiency? How do your projected costs and migration
timetables match up with the rest of the industry? What is the
competitive threat posed by other operators using other technologies?
— Investors: Which technologies are emerging as the winning solutions for
mobile data broadband services, and which companies are the leading
providers of those solutions? How will the migration to flat IP mobile
architectures affect profitability for the mobile sector in the coming
months and years?