Mobile Device Market Exceeds Expectations to Deliver 289 Million in 1Q 2008

“Operators and distributors continued to top up their inventories in 1Q 2008 after a particularly strong 4Q 2007,” says ABI Research vice president Jake Saunders. “Year on year, 1Q 2008 was up 13.7%, but 2Q 2008 is likely to be softer than in previous years.” Shipment volumes in the developed markets have softened slightly due to the credit crisis, but emerging markets such as Asia-Pacific, South America, and the Middle East/Africa are delivering growth rate percentages in the mid-20s. Mobile devices have proved to be a “lifestyle necessity,” rather than a mere luxury accessory.

Despite all the global concern about price inflation in food, rent, clothing, oil, and utility bills, device manufacturers are not benefiting. The ASP (Average Selling Price) has shown comprehensive price erosion for all manufacturers.
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CDG Announces Program Agenda for 2008 3G CDMA Latin America Regional Conference

The CDMA Development Group (CDG) today announced the agenda for the 2008 3G CDMA Latin America Regional Conference, which will take place May 13-15 in Cancun, Mexico. The program will cover all facets of the Latin American CDMA2000 ecosystem, including regional growth, international roaming, ultra low-cost handset availability, the increasing opportunities for CDMA450, and how operators are using CDMA2000 broadband data networks to increase ARPU and offer new services to consumers. The three-day event will also address how wider-bandwidth OFDM-based technologies will interoperate and complement CDMA2000.

Keynote speakers at the 2008 3G CDMA Latin America Regional Conference are:
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Infonetics Research: Femtocell access point market: great potential, tough hurdles

Many factors are converging to create a market ripe for femtocell technology, says a new report from analyst firm Infonetics Research called Femtocell Access Points Market Size and Forecasts. Chief among these factors:

– Mounting numbers of mobile subscribers, forecast by Infonetics to hit
4.4 billion worldwide in 2011
– A booming broadband market, driven by demand for faster Internet
connection speeds and applications like social networking, online gaming,
and multimedia
– Mobile operators seeking to boost revenue by enticing customers to pay
for new data services to offset escalating mobile backhaul costs and voice
revenue losses
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Nearly 20% of Mid- and High-end Mobile Devices Will Run a Linux Operating System by 2013

Linux, which has been much maligned by Symbian and Microsoft as a non-starter in the handset operating system market, is set to see strong growth as issues with framework fragmentation and silicon requirements are alleviated. The growing momentum behind the LiMo Foundation initiative, as well as the marketing boost that has been realized from the entry of Google’s Android solution has been further enhanced by Nokia’s support of the Maemo solution and its purchase of Trolltech. ABI Research believes that by 2013, nearly one out of every five mid- or high-end mobile devices will use a Linux operating system.

ABI Research vice president Stuart Carlaw notes that, “Clever choice of public license support, along with software engineering that isolates proprietary items from open source items, allows operating system vendors to generate revenue from a very cost-effective OS solution.” He goes on to add that, “Linux OS solutions will be far more cost-effective than incumbent solutions, even when silicon requirements are taken into account, given that a fuller application layer will be included in the standard package and that the burden of customization falls mostly on the independent software vendor.”
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Big Growth in Data Traffic Will Spur Changes to Wireless Networks, says Heavy Reading

The exponential growth of data traffic carried by wireless networks is likely to force mobile service providers to accelerate their efforts to upgrade their networks to a flat, all-IP architecture, according to a major new report titled, Flat IP Architectures in Mobile Networks: From 3G to LTE, published by Heavy Reading, the market research division of TechWeb’s Light Reading.

Flat IP Architectures in Mobile Networks: From 3G to LTE examines network architecture evolution in response to rapidly growing 3G data traffic and the planned introduction of Long Term Evolution (LTE) and System Architecture Evolution (SAE) technology over the next two to four years. The report focuses on the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) technology track and specifically on the network elements that make up flat radio access networks (RANs) and the next-generation mobile packet core.

The 61-page report analyzes data from network operators and technology suppliers to determine how continued growth of data traffic volumes will affect mobile network performance. The report then delivers a detailed analysis of the technology options available to enable network operators to make the transition to flat IP networks. The report covers the full range of issues facing mobile network operators, including:

— Economic drivers for migrating to all-IP networks
— Mobile broadband service pricing trends
— The need to prepare for 4G technologies
— The effect of non-3GPP technologies (including UMA/GAN and femtocells) on carrier networks
— Direct Tunnel architecture strategies
— LTE/SAE architecture and Evolved Packet Core
— Mobile packet core issues and deployments, including deep packet inspection

Flat IP Architectures in Mobile Networks: From 3G to LTE also delivers a competitive analysis of product and migration strategies of 14 of the world’s leading mobile IP technology suppliers.

“The steep rise in data traffic volumes being carried by wireless networks is unmistakable,” says Gabriel Brown, Senior Analyst with Heavy Reading and author of the report. “In 2007, some large operators in Europe were carrying 2,000 GB of data traffic per day — an eightfold increase over traffic volumes compared with 2006. Mobile operators have to manage rapid traffic growth across a network infrastructure that simultaneously provides lower cost per bit and greater flexibility in the pricing structures of end-user services.”

A major key to achieving that goal is to adopt flat, all-IP network architectures to replace the hierarchical architectures that characterize legacy wireless networks, Brown says. “IP affects all segments of the mobile network architecture, including the radio access network, voice core, packet core, integration of non-3GPP/3GPP2 access, and the transmission network,” he adds.

Other key findings of Flat IP Architectures in Mobile Networks: From 3G to LTE include the following:

Lower prices and higher data rates are the main reasons for the huge recent growth in mobile data traffic. Usage is dominated by laptop modems, while “small-screen” services on handhelds is not yet generating significant traffic volume.

Mobile data revenues grew more than 40 percent in 2007 and revenue growth could be higher this year, as more users take advantage of cheaper services. There now appears to be evidence of positive elasticity for mobile data, but growth in the market to date is driven by the early-adopter community.

A 3G network capacity crunch isn’t likely before the end of 2009, which means operators still have time to hone their transition strategies — but the clock is ticking. Operators will use a mixture of software upgrades and deployment of additional carriers to enhance 3G cell site capacity for the time being. But within two years, operators of 3G networks will have to begin to migrate to Evolved HSPA, offering peak data rates of 28 Mbit/s, and then 42 Mbit/s per sector.

Flat IP Architectures in Mobile Networks: From 3G to LTE is essential reading for a wide range of industry participants, including the following:

— Mobile technology suppliers: How will soaring mobile data traffic
volumes affect demand for infrastructure products in coming months?
Which regions are going to see the most activity, and which network
operators will be leading the way? Which technology choices are
emerging as the front-runners in the move to flat IP architectures? Are
your products and marketing messages in line with customer plans and
expectations? Or are there significant gaps in your product line
coverage that need to be addressed to meet future demand for mobile
broadband data networking solutions?
— Mobile network operators: How do your plans for mobile broadband data
network expansion compare with anticipated increases in traffic
volumes? How does your IP migration strategy compare with the
strategies of your competitors? Does your migration path deliver the
best cost-performance option, or are there other alternatives that will
deliver greater efficiency? How do your projected costs and migration
timetables match up with the rest of the industry? What is the
competitive threat posed by other operators using other technologies?
— Investors: Which technologies are emerging as the winning solutions for
mobile data broadband services, and which companies are the leading
providers of those solutions? How will the migration to flat IP mobile
architectures affect profitability for the mobile sector in the coming
months and years?

Mobile Device Management Services, a $20 Billion Opportunity by 2013. But Who Will Manage?

A very complex mobile value chain and a growing business reliance on mobile products have created the need for services that help businesses maximize the value of their mobile investments. In a recent report from ABI Research, mobile device management (MDM) services are forecast to grow from $583 million in 2007 to over $20 billion by 2013, for a compound annual growth rate of 80%.

Mobile device management services include policy development, procurement and asset management, billing audit and reconciliation, enhanced customer care, device/content security, and additional services that are vertical- and occupation-specific. According to principal analyst Dan Shey, “The range of services needed to manage a business’s mobile investments requires inputs from many different wireless equipment and services providers including operators, MDM platform vendors, IT services providers, telecom expense management firms, and mobility management services firms. All want to be part of the action.”
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Qualcomm’s Gobi: An Antidote (Not a Cure-All) for Cellular Modem Value Chain Ills

With the spread of 3G cellular networks, connected notebooks with built-in cellular modems have not met early adoption forecasts. Part of the issue has been high broadband data pricing but that does not explain why business customers, who make up the initial target market, have not been more receptive to the convenience of embedded connectivity on mobile broadband wide area networks.

Much of the resistance to purchasing notebooks with embedded connectivity can be mitigated by connectivity that is agnostic to the underlying network protocols. Qualcomm has solved this problem with Gobi, a multi-band GSM and CDMA chipset for use in cellular modems. In a new Research Brief, ABI Research principal analysts Dan Shey and Phil Solis highlight the value of Gobi to the mobile value chain and analyze the implications.
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LTE Unlikely to Offer Superfast Mobile Broadband to the Masses Until 2011

Although the first 3G LTE (Long Term Evolution) networks will come into operation in Japan in 2010, the technology is unlikely to see the light of day until 2011 in the rest of the world. Even then, subscriber numbers are forecast to be only 4.2 million with a large proportion using LTE via data cards on their laptops, according to a recently published report from London-based research and consulting firm, ARCchart. As in the case of WCDMA, the role of handset manufacturers will be crucial and it is not until 2012 and 2013 when LTE handsets really penetrate the market that LTE will see significant take up. Some operators will choose to delay rolling out LTE in preference for HSPA+ which will offer many of the benefits of LTE.

Many cellular operators are betting on LTE to provide their next-generation mobile broadband networks with download speeds of 100 Mbps. However, the key question remains, can operators who are only just starting to see returns from their 3G licenses really justify investing in what is essentially a new replacement technology? The ARCchart report, titled “The LTE Business Case: Operator and Vendor Strategies”, examines the technical and market dilemmas faced by operators and vendors in their migration to LTE, examining the LTE business case in the context of a converging communications world. The report looks at the risks associated with the upgrade to a totally new technology and the progress made by the principal vendors and standards bodies involved.
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Norwegians buy more expensive and advanced mobile phones than Swedes and Danes

Norwegians buy more expensive and advanced phones and replace their mobile phones every other year on average, according to a new study done by Synovate on behalf of Telenor.

Comparing the use of mobile phones in Norway, Sweden and Denmark, the study shows that Norwegians spend the most money on new phones, an average of NOK 1868, while a Swede spends an equivalent of NOK 1762 and a Dane NOK 1247 when purchasing a new mobile phone.
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LTE to lead OFDM-based technologies by 2014, says Visant Strategies

The early favorite in 4G wireless is the long-term roadmap for UMTS, LTE, but other technologies are now gaining support, according to a new study by Visant Strategies.

“We see LTE as the leading OFDM-based platform in 2014, accounting for 39 million subscribers and $9 billion in equipment revenues, with the market accelerating the next three years after that as far as subscribers and infrastructure sales go,” said Andy Fuertes of Visant Strategies. “These next six years will lay the foundation for 4G with the market really growing in earnest during the years after that.”
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Ericsson to supply WCDMA/HSPA network to TIM in Brazil

Ericsson has been selected by TIM Brasil, Brazil’s largest GSM operator, to provide a WCDMA/HSPA network, enabling the launch of high-speed mobile broadband in eight states across Brazil.

Under the agreement, Ericsson will be the sole supplier of a 2G/3G common core network and the main supplier of a radio access network in the Brazilian states of Acre, Distrito Federal, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rondônia, São Paulo and Tocantins. The upgrade of TIM’s existing 2G (GSM/GPRS/EDGE) network with the latest HSPA functionality will enable a smooth and efficient introduction of high-speed 3G (WCDMA/HSPA) services. Ericsson will also provide services, including network and technology consulting, network design, network deployment and systems integration of end user service platforms and applications.
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012 Smile.Communications Reports That its Experimental License to Conduct Fixed & Mobile WiMAX Technology Trials Has Been Extended

012 Smile.Communications announced that its experimental license to conduct WiMAX technology trials in Sderot and a high tech business center in the Tel Aviv area has been extended by Israel’s Ministry of Communications. With respect to the Sderot area - the license was extended until April 7, 2009 and with respect to the Tel Aviv area - the license was extended until September 18, 2009.

In March 2007, 012 Smile.Communications was awarded the first technology experimental license to conduct fixed WiMAX trials in several locations in Israel, including the largest high-tech business center in the Tel Aviv area. The license was later amended to also include mobile WiMAX trials in Sderot area.
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Nokia introduces 6212 classic handset with Near Field Communication (NFC)

Nokia today introduced the Nokia 6212 classic featuring integrated Near Field Communication (NFC). The 3G handset allows consumers to conveniently share content, access services and information as well as conduct payments and ticketing with one tap of the device. The Nokia 6212 classic is expected to start shipping in the third quarter of 2008 in select markets in Europe and Asia with an estimated retail price of EUR 200 before taxes and subsidies.

“NFC-capable handsets such as the Nokia 6212 classic are set to change the way mobile phone users interact with devices and services in their surroundings,” says Jeremy Belostock, the Head of Near Field Communications, Nokia. “With the Nokia 6212 classic, people can swap items like business cards or calendar notes by simply tapping their handsets together. With ever-increasing device functions and services available, ease-of-use is essential. One way to keep things simple is NFC.”
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MediaFLO Powers In-Vehicle Mobile TV Demo at NAB 2008

Qualcomm Incorporated today unveiled the first-ever MediaFLO technology demonstration broadcast over the air to an in-vehicle entertainment system. The innovative mobile TV demonstration shows the flexibility of the MediaFLO platform as well as the exciting and unique delivery methods it can enable in a wide variety of scenarios.

The in-vehicle demonstration features a sport-utility vehicle outfitted with two rear headrest television screens with VGA resolution. The MediaFLO receiver, integrated in the rear center console, will receive live streaming television broadcasts on the MediaFLO platform at QVGA resolution. The center console controller allows users to launch the electronic channel guide, change channels and access optional features of the MediaFLO System.
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Wireless Vendors commit to framework for LTE technology IPR licensing

Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, NEC, NextWave Wireless, Nokia, Nokia Siemens Networks and Sony Ericsson have today announced a mutual commitment to a framework for establishing predictable and more transparent maximum aggregate costs for licensing intellectual property rights (IPR) that relate to 3GPP Long Term Evolution and Service Architecture Evolution standards (LTE/SAE). The companies invite all interested parties to join this initiative which is intended to stimulate early adoption of mobile broadband technology across the communications and consumer electronic industries.

The framework is based on the prevalent industry principle of fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory (FRAND) licensing terms for essential patents. This means that the companies agree, subject to reciprocity, to reasonable, maximum aggregate royalty rates based on the value added by the technology in the end product and to flexible licensing arrangements according to the licensors’ proportional share of all standard essential IPR for the relevant product category.
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